Forex Forecast
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
RBNZ On Hold The RBNZ kept the policy rate on hold at 2.5%, and pointed to the detrimental consequences of a strong NZD. Governor Bollard said a strong currency undermines GDP growth and, if the kiwi’s recent gains are sustained, the need for rate hikes would be reduced.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
A Week Of Policy Decisions Markets were broadly range-bound overnight with a great deal of focus on China’s launch of economic targets for the year ahead. The GDP target was set at 7.5% – the lowest since 2004 but this move had been well flagged in advance and we remain confident above-8.0% growth can be […]
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Risk Assets Suffer Risk assets came under heavy pressure on Tuesday, in a move which started in Asia but gained momentum later in the European and US sessions. The high-beta risk currencies fell sharply while most major equity markets traded deeply in the red.
FX Ringside
Private Greek debt holders likely to approve plan Euro-zone governments approved the first half of the second Greek rescue package at their summit last week, with consent to the remainder conditional on the outcome of private bondholder participation in restructuring privately held Greek debt (PSI), and the Greek government’s ability to convince the market of […]
UBS Morning Adviser America
Euro Drags Risk Lower The euro came under pressure amid uncertainty over the Greek PSI deadline. The Greek debt agency chief confirmed that the deadline remains March 8 but investors were not particularly consoled by the comments.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
RBA Ahead It was a quiet US session as investors looked ahead to seven G10 monetary policy meetings over the next ten days. Event risk lurks in other forms too with Greek Finance Minister Venizelos stressing overnight that Greece is ‘ready to activate CACs if needed’.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Friday’s Tone Persists Monday morning markets had a similar tone to Friday, with the dollar generally better bid. News and data flow were minimal over the weekend but the skew of releases was probably to the risk averse side.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
A Week Of Policy Decisions Markets were broadly range-bound overnight with a great deal of focus on China’s launch of economic targets for the year ahead. The GDP target was set at 7.5% – the lowest since 2004 but this move had been well flagged in advance and we remain confident above-8.0% growth can be […]
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
Euro Money Markets Relax Euribor fixings moved significantly lower on Friday in the wake of the ECB’s second LTRO. Further sizeable declines seem very likely over the coming days and weeks − making the euro look increasingly attractive as a funding currency and supporting our 3m EURUSD forecast of 1.25.
UBS Morning Adviser America
Merkel Backs Bundesbank In the absence of any major news the dollar held firm overnight. The euro tracked the Eurozone fixed income markets, grinding lower as periphery spreads to Germany widened slightly.
UBS Morning Adviser Europe
USDJPY Looking Buoyant USDJPY advanced overnight, touching 81.50 for the second time since the BoJ eased policy two weeks ago. Weak Japanese inflation data for January illustrated the daunting challenge facing the BoJ as it strives to hit the new “goal” of 1%.
UBS Morning Adviser Asia
No Greek CDS Trigger Yet Brent prices jumped sharply to $128/bbl late during the US session on reports of a pipeline incident, but gains were pared after this was denied. The price action shows investors remain very nervous about the oil market and potential supply disruptions arising from the Middle East.