Forex Forecast

China PMI Surges Ahead China’s official manufacturing PMI released over the weekend came in at 53.1 (cons. 50.8), substantially beating consensus opinion. The Australian dollar was the main beneficiary and climbed over 100 pips at the Asia open.

NOK Surges The NOK was the star performer overnight as a raft of activity data pointed to a strong rebound in general economic conditions. Retail sales and PMI figures surprised massively to the upside, and markets are left scratching heads as to why Norges Bank painted such a bleak outlook on the economy when they […]

Quarter-End Flows Underway Price action in Asia was dominated by month-end and quarter-end flows into the Tokyo fix, on this the last day of Japan’s fiscal year. The euro, and Australian and New Zealand dollars received a boost, but USDJPY remains  heavy as UST yields continue to drift lower.

Risk Remains Under Pressure Lower UST yields and the stronger yen overnight highlighted the lingering concerns about global growth, with the latest US data (claims down to 359k from 364k; Q4 GDP growth unrevised at a 3.0% annual rate; Q4 operating profits up 0.9% q/q) failing to really inspire. Yet, after touching sub-82 territory, USDJPY […]

Growth Assets Challenged Risk continued to struggle overnight as major European bourses are still trading in the red, following a very tame session in Asia, driven by weak indices across the Greater China region. Clearly, growth concerns are now becoming the dominant driver and the commodity bloc in particular is being hard it.

AUD Still Vulnerable The Australian dollar struggled through the overnight session, weighed down by lingering concern over how severe the slowdown in China could become. A McCrann article in the Australian press added to the selling pressure, claiming that a cut to the RBA’s cash rate at next Tuesday’s meeting is actually more likely than […]

Sticking With The Dollar Softer than expected data, weaker equity markets and lower commodity prices have all served to underpin the US dollar, which has managed to shrug off the ‘Bernanke effect’. The downward revision to UK Q4 GDP (-0.3% q/q) and modest bounce in US February durable goods orders (+2.2% m/m) were the latest […]

Risk Interest Soft Bernanke’s attempts to contain investor fears over early normalization seemed to have worked for no more than 24 hours. Even though he backed up the argument yesterday by warning against premature declarations of ‘victory’ over the economic recovery, the market is coming to realize that there are big differences between no change […]

Dollar Looking Steadier The lack of any economic data releases overnight allowed the US dollar to get back on its feet and reclaim some lost ground. Still tempering the US dollar’s upside is the cautious stance of Fed Chairman Bernanke, who said in a transcript of an impending television interview that “it’s far too early […]

Dollar Recovers The US dollar is sporting a steadier profile in Asia, having reclaimed some lost ground against the majors overnight amid the equity market pullback. Still tempering the US dollar’s upside is the cautious stance of Fed Chairman Bernanke, who said in a transcript of an impending television interview that “it’s far too early […]

EUR Continues Recovery The euro continues to make headway as a combination of auctions and positive moves in periphery debt markets provided an additional tailwind, on the back of Bernanke’s comments yesterday. On that note, we continue to question whether the market has been overemphasizing individual phrases contained in the Chairman’s speech, rather than looking […]