Forex Forecast

Gloomy Outlook The dollar took another leg higher in European trading on limited data-flow. Part of the reason may have been a relatively disappointing outcome to last night’s Eurogroup meeting (where Spain was barely mentioned, other than comments on the need to continue the implementation of fiscal measures), though a pricing dissemination issue with Spanish […]

EURCHF Spikes Higher The Swiss franc weakened overnight after Bloomberg reported that a custodian bank plans to impose negative interest rates on CHF and DKK deposits from Nov. 1.

JPY Gains Equity markets in the US traded in red on Monday as companies prepared to announce their Q3 earnings starting this week. JPY gained across the board though there was little in the way of major data releases with Tokyo on holiday and the US Treasury market closed for Columbus Day.

Dollar Creeps Higher Flows on Monday were skewed towards ‘risk-off’ with the dollar gaining across the board, except versus the JPY. The main movers were Cable and EURUSD though there was little in the way of major data releases with Tokyo on holiday and the US Treasury market also closed for Columbus Day in the […]

No Payrolls Follow-Through There was little follow-through in Asia after the US payrolls and unemployment reports on Friday. Flows were light with Tokyo on holiday and the US Treasury market also closed for Columbus Day in the US.

Eurogroup Meets USDJPY gained following a better than expected US jobs report on Friday which showed unemployment drop to 7.8% in September from 8.1% in August (consensus: 8.2%) and participation rate rise marginally to 63.6% .

Payrolls Day The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy settings entirely unchanged overnight – there was no change to APP purchase targets, and no change to the older Rinban JGB-buying operations.

BoJ Unchanged The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy settings entirely unchanged overnight – there was no change to APP purchase targets, and no change to the older Rinban JGB-buying operations.

Payrolls Day USD and JPY lost across the board on Thursday as risk appetite strengthened. EURUSD rallied steadily during the New York session to break above the 1.30 level after a successful Spanish bond auction, where the government sold EUR3.99 bn bonds, close to the target maximum.

ECB Up Next Risk appetite was fairly stable heading into today’s central bank meetings. A Spanish multi-tranche bond auction passed with few problems, the Tesoro was able to issue at the upper end of targeted amounts (EUR 4 bn in total).

Soft Aussie Retail Sales Australian economic data disappointed again overnight – retail sales rebounded somewhat, but the recovery was lukewarm at only +0.2% m/m (cons. +0.4%).