Forex Forecast
UBS Morning Adviser
New Tactics From AAA CBs? The central bank releases on Wednesday from the RBNZ and Norges Bank have provided us with unique insight in how policymakers in the
UBS Morning Adviser
NZ Confirms Intervention Official RBNZ statistics show that the central bank has been a net seller of New Zealand dollars over the past six months.
UBS Morning Adviser
Back To Goldilocks? Markets have breathed a sigh of relief after last Friday’s payrolls figures. Not only did the headline number surprise to the upside,
UBS Morning Adviser
AUD To Pop, Then To Drop The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.0% at Tuesday morning’s policy decision. That’s the view of our Australia economics team,
UBS Morning Adviser
Talking Down the Good News It was all plain sailing for the euro on Thursday until Draghi found an opening to express his ‘openness’ on negative deposit rates.
UBS Morning Adviser
Fed Waits, ECB Next The key risk to our bullish dollar view is if the Federal Reserve decides to prolong its current round of quantitative easing into 2014.
UBS Morning Adviser
Do Come Back After May ‘Sell in May and go away’ has had its fair share of supporters and detractors over the years. For FX markets, seasonality is often used as post-hoc rationalisation of price action,
UBS Morning Adviser
It’s April 30th and so the BoJ’s new easing program has reached the end of its first month of operation. There have been some teething issues – notably a sharp increase in JGB volatility.
UBS Morning Adviser
Japan To Buy Asian Bonds? Local media reports indicate that Japan may diversify some of its FX reserves into the bond markets of South East Asia. The announcement could come as early as Friday May 3rd ¹.
UBS Morning Adviser
Follow the Growth Flow The market will likely increase its pricing of an ECB rate cut in the run up to the May policy meeting. A weaker euro can also be expected, but for a credit- and funding- starved Eurozone,
UBS Morning Adviser
Swiss Puzzle, German Answer The Swiss franc has weakened sharply this week. EURCHF has jumped from levels just above the Swiss National Bank’s ‘minimum’ floor of 1.20 to above 1.23 while USDCHF has appreciated back towards 0.95 the figure.
UBS Morning Adviser
Only The Kiwi Flies Central banks are being forced to change stance. Following yesterday’s weak PMI data, the European Central Bank is now likely to cut interest rates on May 2.