Forex Forecast

Weekly Commentary

Last week we expressed scepticism that threatened oractual currency intervention by the Reserve Bank

Our G10 forecasts have long encompassed a bullish USD theme, so the modifications here are ones of magnitude rather than direction.

Both the speed and the size of the move in the USD have surprised us over the past month.

NZD/USD Outlook: Down this week We reached our year-end target of 0.8000 much earlier than expected but

The New Zealand dollar’s small post-election relief bounce last week was quickly swamped by far greater forces from both locally and overseas.

Future path of the AUD is a critical focus for businesses. Exporters are still frustrated by the AUD,

The weekend’s general election returned an increasedmajority to the ruling coalition of National, ACT, UnitedFuture and Maori.

We expect Thursday’s Q2 GDP report to show a slowdown in economic growth.

NZD/USD Outlook: Down this week We continue to hold a negative view of NZD/USD.

Rarely do all parts of the NZ economy move perfectly insynch.

We revise our FX forecasts for the remainder of 2014, for 2015 and for the first time provide financial forecasts for 2016.

Blockbuster week in Australia with loads of key economic data, an RBA rate decision tomorrow, and a speech from the RBA Governor on Wednesday.