Forex Forecast
Australian Markets Weekly
The market is pricing in a one in five chance that the RBA will ease monetary policy at its Board meeting tomorrow.
UBS Morning Adviser
AUD Suspense Almost Over Today, at 1300GMT the IMF is due to reveal for the first time the size of reserve manager holdings of AUD and CAD¹.
BNZ Strategist
In late May, we said that if the US central bank relaxes its easing bias and US yields break convincingly higher the NZD/USD pullback could extend.
UBS Morning Adviser
Sterling’s Other Catalysts The UK reports final Q1 GDP numbers today. After Wednesday’s surprisingly soft US print, any result close to consensus could give the pound a fillip.
UBS Morning Adviser
Weaker Yen Beckons on JGB Stability Another 24 hours, another move higher in US yields, and still the JGB market remains indifferent.
UBS Morning Adviser
What Should EUR Follow? The Italy/German 10-year bond spread touched 300 basis points on Monday, the widest since mid-April.
UBS Morning Adviser
USDJPY: The Outlook Brightens Prime Minister Abe’s party and his political allies together won an overall majority in regional elections held over the weekend in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
Australian Markets Weekly
• The clarity provided on the FOMC’s intentions with regard to dialling down QE greatly improves our confidence in the AUD/USD downtrend being sustained.
Two for the hawks, one for the doves
On balance, last week’s developments were a clear positive for New Zealand interest rates, with a more hawkish US Fed and
UBS Morning Adviser
Risk Off Yet Carry On The market is clearly still suffering from ‘tapering indigestion’ but Bernanke would have not chosen the words used unless he was confident enough that sentiment would stabilise.
UBS Morning Adviser
Whither Europe’s Super-AAAs? Wednesday clearly witnessed a more assertive Fed than expected. Even though Bernanke did his best to rein in expectations of any immediate changes,
Minor changes to longer-term GBP forecast
We have made minor adjustments to our longer-term financial forecasts for the UK. Below we summarise our scenario and the key reasoning behind the numbers.