Forex Forecast

The All-Consuming Currency Strength

With today’s new base in place, we could well be looking at annual retail growth toward 5.5% being registered by mid next year.

The latest Financial Stability Report reveals that theReserve Bank is far from relaxed about the risks emanating from the housing market,

Recent monthly economic indicators and business surveys show continued moderate global economic growth

We look at the current 6.2% unemployment rate relative to its “normal” level or NAIRU.

Three key developments have informed our latest thinking: the recent commodity price down turn,

RBA to leave the cash rate at 2½% tomorrow for 15th consecutive month and their updated forecasts on Friday will be little changed.

Overall credit growth has been edging higher. Mortgage demand is firmer

Global inflation modest – the US inflation rate is low and Eurozone at risk of deflation.

Over the past few weeks financial markets have been jitteryand volatile.

A striking feature in recent times has been the divergencebetween the confidence of businesses and consumers.

Last week’s releases completed the suite of confidencesurveys for the latest quarter.

The September employment data on Thursday will attract plenty of interest,