Forex Forecast
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 20 June 2011
While Germany has softened its stance on the debt swap issue, overall risk appetite remains dependent on developments on Greece. FOMC this week likely to use “extended period” language of both rates and balance sheet. Likely diverging RBA, BoE minutes suggest further downside for GBPAUD.
CEE WEEKLY: EMU periphery relief to help CEE
Trades of the week CEE markets will continue to be driven by the EMU periphery crisis with Friday’s announcement by Germany and France likely helping the sentiment on the open on Monday. In terms of trade ideas: 1) We believe Romanian markets can recover relatively fast if the EMU periphery pressure eases and we remain […]
Daily Forex Outlook: It’s the eleventh hour, again
EUR USD (1.4150) Reuters reported yesterday that Germany wants the deadline for a second bailout package for Greece to be pushed back to September. Frau Merkel will meet with French President Nicolas Sarkozy today and try to reconcile their differences over whether to allow for an orderly restructuring of Greek debt.
Chart of the week: Asia ain’t cracking
After a long absence, Chart of the Week is throwing itself back into the game. And there is plenty to say. First up: markets are chewing their nails about growth. Weak US data doesn’t help, clearly. Nor do Japanese supply chain wobbles that are still feeding through the system.
FX Alpha – Greek Debt Crisis: Countdown
How Would a Greek Default Effect EUR Exchange Rates. A Greek default rating becomes more likely. Does this imply negative consequences for EUR exchange rates? In the short run, the answer probably is: yes. But especially if the ECB will nevertheless hike rates on July 7th, the euro would have recovery potential afterwards.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 16 June 2011
USD is king as risk-off mode takes hold Uncertainty over Greece will continue to steer EURUSD, we still like EURUSD gamma – but it’s no longer cheap SNB meeting to be eyed for comments on CHF strength
Daily Forex Outlook: The Greece situation
EUR USD (1.4170) The euro suffered its largest fall in more than a month yesterday as eurozone leaders failed to come to an agreement on the shared costs of a new Greek bailout.
Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals – Despite the recovery seen in the last few days, AUD/USD continues to look top heavy
AUD/USD: Recent bounce should run out of steam. We still expect AUD/USD to decline in the weeks ahead. NZD/USD: Failed ahead of the .8395 December 1981 high which should continue to cap.
Daily Forex Outlook : Surveys show the best of times, the worst of times
EUR USD (1.4405) The trading range in the EUR/USD seems to be bound by the Greek debt crisis on one end and by the US debt ceiling crisis on the other. The separate issues likely prevent traders from choosing a trend, and the Market Bias Index confirms this indecision, but they are nevertheless prepared to […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 15 June 2011
Risk on from Chinese figures is unlikely to turn into something more lasting while Greece remains unresolved. May US CPI is likely to ease; downside surprise can drag US treasury yields and USDJPY lower. AUD to continue outperformace as RBA Stevens reignites hopes for an early rate hike
FX DAILY STRATEGY Asia – 15 June 2011
Risk on momentum stays course with equities rallying and USD weakening Headlines out of Europe will continue to steer EUR until there is a conclusive resolution on Greece May US CPI is likely to ease; downside surprise can drag US treasury yields and USDJPY lower
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 14 June 2011
Still strong Chinese activity data eases fears of sharp slowdown just as a RRR hike reduces fear of a more serious monetary tightening which would hurt AUD shorts. Europe headed towards deal with most closer to being on same page but beware disappointment: play EURUSD via options and look to leg into AUDCHF longs Still […]