Forex Forecast
EURO ANALYSIS
The ECB is expected to take a pause in its interest-rate-cutting campaign next week, but that’s not likely to bring a reprieve to the EURO, which remains trapped in a vicious cycle of rising government borrowing costs and weak economic data.
UBS Morning Adviser: Optimistic Start to 2012
Risk currencies got off to a good start overnight as Asia returned from the holiday season (although Japan is still out). A strong non-manufacturing PMI out of China helped to keep sentiment supported, although the move higher in FX was already underway beforehand.
Technical Alert: Looking for correctional highs in EURUSD, EURGBP & EURJPY
EUR advance looks correctional in EURUSD & EURJPY… A correctional top may already be passed in EURGBP… EUR/scandies still trade sideways but lower shadows in EURSEK and loss of downside momentum puts focus on 8.96 above… NOKSEK should test 1.1550\80 before turning lower again (corrective peak already passed if back under 1.1480)…
Quiet markets as New Year approaches; What to watch in 2012
US wins as tough year sees end Global asset markets are quiet on this last trading day before New Year. European stocks are 0.3 percent higher, EURUSD is down 0.2 percent, gold spot is up 1.6 percent, WTI crude is unchanged and Spanish & Italian 10-year bond yields are down eight and two basis points […]
Technical Alert: Higher oil, stronger zloty & weaker rupee
Only small movements noted – the best of the least in USDINR (1mt NDF) which trades notably higher today bringing the recent 54.83 high back in focus… EURPLN was allowed to accelerate below dynamic support which makes ~4.33 possible (before up)…
Tecnical Alert: EUR/USD looks heavy after topside failure yesterday
EUR/USD looks heavy after topside failure yesterday and it would be surprising NOT to see the pair trading below 1.2983 today… USDindex also failed below and added a bullish print. Over 80.50 would be additionally dollar bullish…
UBS Morning Adviser: Debt Woes Continue
The EUR has managed to avoid further losses during the Asia session but it is clear that it will take more than a blast of liquidity by the ECB to change the overall picture for the currency. In addition, even if the funds do succeed in preventing massive deleveraging by banks and protect financial stability, […]
Technical Alert: AUD & GBP winners on decreased risk aversion
AUD & GBP are winners on decreased risk aversion, EUR lags behind… EURUSD could extend correctional gains towards 1.3213\25 & USDindex could recheck 79.10 while GBPUSD may advance into the high-1.57s and AUDUSD could score 1.0275 before falling back…
UBS Morning Adviser: BoJ Unchanged
The Bank of Japan left policy entirely unchanged at its meeting overnight, as widely expected. Market focus is now fixed squarely on Europe again as the ECB gears up for the first of two three-year LTROs. By all accounts, the take up is expected to be strong and, if so, markets would likely interpret this […]
Technical Alert: waiting for more EUR pressure, SEK failure, $/TRY higher
Riksbank and the SEK in focus today. The false downside break in EURSEK and NOKSEK are clear warning signs that the move has been overextended. EURUSD still digesting the previous slump, immediate bearish stance advocated holding below 1.3050, AUDUSD bearish engulfing candle yesterday suggest upside reaction ending, EURGBP triangle still waiting for the downside break,
UBS Morning Adviser: RBA In Wait-And-See Mode
The Eurozone’s finance ministers’ conference call managed to secure fresh resources for the IMF, though again there was a distinct lack of unanimity. Only four non-Eurozone nations agreed to participate. It had been hoped that the fund’s resources could be boosted to EUR200 bn but instead only EUR150 bn was pledged.
Eurogroup Call Eyed
Conviction was lacking in the European session and risk appetite was mixed. Political uncertainty in North Korea was partly offset by the prospect of potentially euro-positive headlines later today from the Eurogroup conference call.