Forex Charts
FX Daily
It will be another quiet day in terms of data. The UK releases its unemployment report at 10:30 CET and we look for a further decline in unemployment to 7.2% in November from 7.4% in October.
USDJPY – wave-c expected to meet extension targets between 105.14/83
The pullback from 104.92-103.86 reached a cluster of Fibonacci retracements expected to halt the decline. Now prices are rallying towards extension objectives between 105.14/93 to complete wave-B in a large range-bound correction.
FX Daily
German ZEW is expected to have risen further in January to 64.0 from 62.0 in December. This would mark the highest level since 2006.
FX Daily
The US markets are closed due to Martin Luther King day. With no significant data on the calendar either it is likely to be a quiet day.
FX Daily
US housing starts and building permits should give us a better idea of a possible bad weather impact in December as suggested by the disappointing labour market report for December.
USDJPY – large range unfolding to mark time between 105/103
The wave-(4) correction is covering a wide range of prices from 102.86-105.44. Because of the choppy nature of the move lower from 105.44,
FX Daily
In the data calendar the main event is US consumer prices for December. We expect inflation to accelerate to 1.5% y/y from 1.2% y/y mainly on the back of higher food prices.
USDJPY – another break of 103.90/80 projects to target cluster near ~102
The head & shoulders top outlined on Monday fell short of the 102.50/39 target zone but did see a break of key neckline support. The size, both in time & price, of the correction from 105.44 is the largest since October and
EURUSD – below 1.3595 July uptrend reengages impulsive decline
The Euro has satisfied the price requirement for this correction which makes 1.37 a likely high for the near to medium term. Whether wave-(2) is complete (or just wave-a of (2)) the target for the next leg lower is now 1.3364 at a minimum.
FX Daily
In Germany the first GDP estimate for 2013 as a whole will be released and indirectly this should also give us the first estimate for GDP growth in Q4.
FX Daily
In the US we expect headline retail sales to have slowed markedly in December to just 0.1% m/m from a solid 0.7% m/m mainly on the back of a substantial decline in auto sales.
USDJPY – small head & shoulders top targeting 102.39 ; part of wave-(4)
$JPY has now entered the correction target zone; this is the area of the previous 4th wave between 103.38/101.63. The 38.2% retrace of the 96.94-105.44 rally is at 102 which is also within the target zone.