Forex Charts
FX Daily
Focus will remain on Ukraine where Crimea’s referendum to join Russia will takeplace on Sunday. The referendum is expected to be in favour of joining Russia,
USDJPY – wave-(c) down underway; but bias is for minor rally today
There is an a-b-c rally in place from 100.77-103.76 and wave-c unfolded as a complete 5-wave rally. The entire upward correction failed near the 61.8% retrace and is now resuming the decline from January.
EURUSD – bearish wedge hits trend and channel resistance
The Euro rally is forming a bearish rising and has found the upper trendline resistance level at 1.3955, this level is also the top of a channel from early February.
FX Daily
In the data calendar the main event today is the release of February retail sales in theUS. We expect headline retail sales to rebound 0.3% m/m on the back of a very weakJanuary where bad weather weighed on consumer spending.
FX Daily
There are a number of speeches from ECB board members today in connectionwith the ECB’s Watchers conference.
FX Daily
We have a light data calendar again today with only second tier releases such asmanufacturing production in the UK, revised Q4 GDP in Italy and small businessconfidence in the US of secondary importance.
FX Daily
Today’s data calendar is relatively light. France and Italy will release industrialproduction for January and provide important input on the direction of the overalleuro area industrial production data to be released on Wednesday.
USDJPY – min target hit yesterday at bear flag resistance
Yesterday prices reached the minimum target that we proposed for the wave-(c) rally at 103.15 (high was 103.17). This was a symmetry target between the rallies in Feb & March as well as channel resistance.
EURUSD – new breakout ; channel & wedge resistance is 1.3905/3950
The 2008 downtrend has been broken along with multi-month pivot resistance near 1.3833. Now there is very little natural resistance up to ~1.42.
FX Daily
The main release today is US non-farm payrolls. We look for a rise of 145,000 but theestimate is extra uncertain currently due to the weather effect.
USDJPY – min/max upside targets, (above 102.86) , are 103.15/104.35
The key pivot level is presenting itself as the market heads into payroll day, 102.86 was a low in Jan and then a high in Feb so a rally through there is needed to push the bull case in the near-term.
EURUSD – above 1.3733 can see test of critical 1.3833; supp is 1.3708
The 1.3833 level is important topside resistance based on highs that date back to last year; it is also the ideal target for wave-d of a possible triangle and finally resistance from a 2008 downtrend line.