Forex Charts
FX Daily
The US employment report for March will be published later today. Uncertainty isquite high given recent distortions from the bad weather. However, we look for adecent report of 195,000 and
USDJPY – 104.07/45 can halt/reverse the Feb/March upward correction
Yesterday’s comment laid out a case for 104.00/45 (104.20/45 to be more exact) based on both Elliott and Geometric projections. Prices are realizing the lower end of that target/reversal zone.
EURUSD – small bear flag targets 1.3705 neckline
Yesterday’s move lower begins to confirm that the 1.3820 pivot is the top of a right shoulder from a larger h&s top. A break of 1.3705 neckline is needed to confirm the pattern and
FX Daily
Today’s main event will be the ECB meeting. The probability of immediate easingfrom the ECB has declined as indicated by statements from vice presidentConstancio that “the low figure of inflation in
USDJPY – wave & geom. pattern both suggest strong resist. b/w 104.00/45
The rally through 103.76 invalidated our call for a wave-[4] triangle but ample resistance between 104.20/45 is expected to contain the current rally.
EURUSD – key neckline support is 1.3705…break targets 1.3544/1.3444
To recap, we are short Euro based on the sharp 3/13 reversal at wedge resistance; this turn coincided with a confluence of resistance on the weekly chart as well.
FX Daily
We have a light calendar in terms of data releases and markets could be in wait-andseemode ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and the US job report on Friday.
EURJPY – tight triangle lacking only a wave-e decline; target is 140.64
The expected rally towards 144 to mark a wave-b high was realized and the choppy turn lower makes the case for a wave-c decline.
AUDUSD – wave-iv pullback targets a retracement zone b/w .9227 to .9145
The triple divergence between price and momentum corroborates our wave count indicating that 5-waves up from .8995 are complete.
FX Daily
In the euro area manufacturing PMIs are due for release and the first estimate of theSpanish and Italian figure will attract most attention.
USDJPY – wave-(e) lower expected after a-b-c rally satisfies wave-(d)
We were looking for a rally to 102.86 Friday but our call for a subsequent decline has been invalidated with the strong push higher. The move to 103.23 has touched the upper boundary of
FX Daily
In terms of data the main release is euro area inflation for March. We expect it todecline to a new cycle-low of 0.5% y/y mainly due to the timing of Easter.