Forex Analysis
CFTC: JPY net-short reduced again ahead of resistance
Hedge Funds only made some small adjustments to their IMM currency futures positions during the week ending April 30.
FX Daily
Key news – Stronger-than-expected US labour market data boost confidence in the global recovery and global stock markets rise.
USD/JPY Analysis
The cross rose from Y97.95 to Y99.06 on release of stronger than expected Non-Farm Payrolls Friday, which came in above market consensus at 165,000 vs 145,000.
RBA likely to hold rates at 3% after Tuesday’s Board meeting
– Despite recent weaker data, the RBA is likely to remain on the bench this week and keep they cash rate steady at 3%. – The RBA also releases the latest quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) next Friday.
GBP/USD Analysis
The pair tracked euro-dollar moves in NY Friday. The rate initially pressed to $1.5479 on release of strong Non-Farm Payrolls,
Australian Markets Weekly
Market looks for a May rate cut – A 25ps cut now priced at better than evens for May
AUD/USD Analysis
The cross fell 0.39.% to 1.0278 after a disappointing retail sales report. In a report published earlier Monday, Australia’s Bureau of Statistics said retail sales there fell 0.4% in
Daily FX Wrap & Strategy
The NZD/USD spent most of last week bouncing around in a sideways 0.8460-0.8580 range as global risk sentiment ebbed and flowed.
Economy Watch
– We continue to expect a first Official Cash Rate hike in March 2014 – And thereafter a steady ‘normalisation’ of the OCR to a peak of 4.50% in mid-2015
FX SENTIMENT REPORT
– There were very few changes this week as the market was likely hesitant to make significant positioning shifts leading into the FOMC, ECB and nonfarm payrolls.
LATAM Daily FX Update
Week‐ahead highlights Although the week is expected to be relatively light in terms of tier‐1 global data, it is heavy in LATAM specific releases,