Forex Analysis
US Morning Update
Major overnight headlines: – German ZEW Investor Confidence rises to 36.4 in May versus expectations of a rise to 40.0 – EMU industrial output falls 1.7% y/y in March versus a fall of 2.0% expected
Mid-Day FX Market Analysis
USD: The Dollar has been able to shake off negative pressure this morning, and has put together a sizable rebound from last night’s lows.
SEK in a hundred years
– Current value of the SEK close to 1913-2013 average. – Competitiveness and purchasing power at normal levels in a historical perspective. Thus, no major need for the SEK to correct.
German ZEW and Euro-zone industrial production today
Focus turns to the Eurozone economy over the next couple of days. Main interest today will be the German ZEW survey for May,
Morning FX Market Commentary
On Monday, markets took a breather after last week’s repositioning. Core bonds regained some ground after last week’s sell-off,
URUSD still trying to quit the 1.3000 habit. USDJPY dips.
EURUSD – 1.3000 is the obvious focus, but we’ve all gotten use to the criss-crossing by now as the 200-day moving average and 55-day moving averages are also converging on this level.
USD/JPY Analysis
The cross closed in NY at Y101.78 after rate had seen highs in this session of Y102.05, seen as a reaction to the release of stronger than forecast US retail sales data
FX Daily
Key news – Strong US retail sales support bond sell-off and stock markets. – JPY slightly stronger overnight after reaching new lows over the weekend.
GBP/USD Analysis
The pair closed in NY at $1.5295 after rate recovered off extended pullback lows of $1.5275, with offers into $1.5300 capping the recovery effort.
EUR/USD Analysis
The pair closed in NY Monday at $1.2976 after rate had recovered off session lows of $1.2942 to $1.3000 before drifting lower into the close.
Markets Wrap & Startegy
Downward momentum in the NZD/USD resumed overnight. It slipped from early evening highs close to 0.8320 to trade at 0.8240 this morning.
Weekly Forex & Interest Rate Outlook
NZD/USD Outlook: Negative Near Term The suggestions the Fed is mapping out a QE-exit strategy has caused significant USD-buying, and much NZD/USD damage, such that a near term breakdown is likely.