Forex Analysis

The Week Ahead

• Australia’s May jobs data showed more resilience than expected with a 1.1k rise, after April’s 45k jobs surge with the unemployment rate easing to 5.5%.

NZD – Down But Not Out

• As the spectre of US QE tapering draws closer to a reality it is unlikely we will return to previous highs on the NZD/USD

A deeper look at Euro-area deflation risks: small but rising

We believe deflation risks in the Euro area will be a major theme during the second half of this year. Deflation risks are a question of how much slack there is in the economy or,

The bulls strike back

Interest rates have been defying gravity for 1.5 months already. Even though the sell-off started from exceptionally low levels and is not totally without merits,

Mid-Day FX Market Analysis

USD: The Dollar has been able to make a moderate rebound from a new low for the move overnight but still have some way to go in order to climb back into positive territory.

Forint and zloty recover but remain vulnerable Polish inflation stays low CEE currencies corrected some of their recent loses yesterday. The forint, which had shortly broken through the technical barrier at 300 EUR/HUF on Tuesday,

Australia: Labour Force (May 2013)

Employment rises 1.1k (DB and market at -10k), unemployment rate falls to 5.5% from an upwardly revised 5.6% last month (DB 5.5%, market 5.6%).

The Global Macro Pulse

Overnight Price Action* USDJPY broke below 95 levels, and Nikkei dropped as much as 6% on the day before paring losses to 4.8%. Chinese markets opened for the first time this week,

USDJPY continues to wreak havoc

Abenomics is fast proving a bad word in Japan as the overnight moves in the Nikkei put the stock average beyond the

Peculiar Rates and FX Dynamics

US real yields have relentlessly marched higher since May. Some may be surprised by the recent ack of broad dollar strength,

USD/JPY Analysis

The pair closed in NY at Y96.07 after recovering off a session low of Y95.14, having failed to retest recent lows at Y94.97.

FX Daily

Market movers today • We expect a decent US retail sales report for May. Growth in headline retail sales is expected to come out at 0.2% and