Forex Analysis
Risks & Drivers – International Economics Monthly
Our global economic growth forecast for 2013 is unchanged at a below average rate of 2.9%.
FX Daily
Market movers today • In the euro area the trade balance for June will give insight into whether the end of the recession was driven by growth abroad.
FX Weekly
The AUD has depreciated about 15% since April, to around USD0.90, thanks to a combination of a dovish and still easing-mode RBA, expectations of Fed tapering (meaning stronger USD),
The RBNZ’s Big Experiment
• LVR rule-change imposition just days away • RBNZ apparently overly focused on “overvalued” housing market
USDJPY – bull flag projects to new high for the week…98.75 first
The wave-D rally towards 99.65/100.5 is still underway and the first move up is tracing 5 waves.
EUR Mid-day Analysis
The September Euro was unable to sustain a sharp upside move during Asian trading, but is still managing to hold onto moderate gains in spite of thin holiday markets throughout the region.
JPY Mid-day Analysis
The September Yen has come through a bumpy overnight session with modest strength, but is looking increasingly vulnerable to a large downside move later this morning.
USD Mid-day Analysis
The Dollar is finding moderate pressure this morning, and continues to give back recent gains as its recovery move appears to have run out of steam.
CHF Mid-day Analysis
The September Swiss is finding moderate pressure this morning, and is showing little upside followthrough after bouncing from yesterday’s lows.
The Global Macro Pulse
USD extended losses in Asia trading. EUR spiked to a high above 1.33, before easing slightly to 1.329. AUD also pushed higher to 0.918, and NZD to 0.806
The end game for the Euro/Swiss 1.20 floor
• SNB Vice President Danthine’s comments highlight the risk of a policy exit from the 1.20 EUR/CHF floor in H1 2015.