Forex Analysis
USDJPY – small head & shoulders top targeting 102.39 ; part of wave-(4)
$JPY has now entered the correction target zone; this is the area of the previous 4th wave between 103.38/101.63. The 38.2% retrace of the 96.94-105.44 rally is at 102 which is also within the target zone.
EUR Mid-day Analysis
The Euro wasn’t able to extend its upward track from last Friday straight away this morning and that hasto be discouraging to the bull camp.
CHF Mid-day Analysis
A short term bounce in the Swiss is expected but we are doubtful that the down trend pattern from thelate December high has been fully reversed. While we would like to sell a return to
JPY Mid-day Analysis
At the end of last week we projected a rally in the Yen in the wake of the US data, with upside targeting atthe time seen up at 95.60 basis the March Yen contract.
USD Mid-day Analysis
The Dollar showed a fresh downside breakout overnight and in turn reached down to the lowest levelsince January 2nd. In other words, residual pressure from the disappointing US payroll data has continued to
Central European Daily
Zloty strengthens on weak US payrolls Polish FinMin wants to cover a half of this year’s financing needs by the end of January
FX implications of lower oil prices
If DB’s forecast of lower oil prices materializes, this will provide furthersupport for our stronger USD view. The Fed has tightened policy theyear after the last 4 favorable ‘exogenous’ oil shocks.
The Global Macro Pulse
The USD has traded weaker across the board in Asia. EURUSD has opened up slightly, testing its Friday high of 1.3685, USDJPY has dropped to 103.41 and AUDUSD has rallied to 0.9035 as the market hunts positions.
FX Daily
Bundesbank Vice President Sabine Lautenschläger is scheduled to testify before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee at 19:00 this evening on her nomination to the ECB board where she replaces Jörg Asmussen.
GBP/USD Analysis
The pair closed in NY Friday at $1.6481 after rate had spiked off pre US employment report lows of $1.6383 to $1.6518 as market reacted to the release of much lower than forecast US NFP.
Swedish Inflation and upward pressure on EUR/DKK
In Sweden, the week ahead is set to peak on Tuesday as Statistics Sweden publishes December 2013 inflation. It looks as if CPIF inflation in December will fall slightly short of the Riksbank’s forecast, at 0.5% y/y instead of 0.6% y/y.
EUR/USD Analysis
The pair spent a dull Asian morning holding in a $1.3662 to $1.3685 range today, the high so far holding just shy of Friday’s $1.3688 high seen after the US jobs data.