Forex Analysis
Sweden: Riksbank with no drama
Fully in line with expectation, the Riksbank left the repo rate unchanged at 0.75%. The repo rate path was left unchanged too, which means that they intend to stay on hold until Q1 2015 when the first rate hike is pencilled in.
Exploiting positioning imbalances in EM FX
A run of weaker US key economic data (ISM, home sales, non-farm payrolls) has moderated Fed policy expectations somewhat, and provided some support for EM FX of late, with average gains of around 2% vs the USD month to date.
The Global Macro Pulse
In FX, AUDUSD was the main mover, dropping about 1% to 0.894 in response to weaker-than-expected employment data. EURUSD recouped some of its overnight losses to rise to 1.3615 while USDJPY fell
FI Eye-opener: ECB deposit rate cut still on the table
Yesterday was fairly quite in the markets. Both equity and bonds markets seem to have stabilised a bit. No major data releases are due for some time and hence market direction could be a bit sideways in the very near term.
FX Daily
US retail sales likely got off to a soft start in January following a strong finish to2013. As consensus we look for 0.0% m/m in total retail sales and 0.1% m/m in retailsales ex autos and gasoline.
EUR/USD Analysis
The pair started in Asia around $1.3593 after a $1.3562 to $1.3599 overnight range in the US. Early losses due to risk off put the euro under some pressure in the Asian morning but euro-dollar’s falls were limited.
AUD/USD Analysis
The Ausssie was in the spotlight again today as it reversed almost all of the gains seen since this week’s strong Chinese trade numbers. Aussie-dollar started in Asia at $0.9029 after peaking at $0.9067 on Wednesday,
USD/JPY Analysis
The pair opened at Y102.50 this morning and marked small losses at the start, carrying dollar-yen up to an early high of Y102.58.
BNZ Weekly Overview
We’ve received almost no fresh information on the state of the NZ economy this week beyond the ElectronicCard Transactions data yesterday and the REINZ monthly dwelling sales data.
Interest Rate Strategy – The RBNZ Will Wait For No Man
There is historic precedent for the RBNZ to lead the US Fed in raising the official cash rate
EUR Mid-day Analysis
The Euro hasn’t been able to garner a definitive windfall from the improvement in overall macro economicconditions this week and that is probably the result of the sharp run up
CHF Mid-day Analysis
The Swiss has started the Wednesday trade in the lower half of the prior session’s range up in amodestly positive track. For the time being, the Swiss might have difficulty edging out the Pound as the leadershipcurrency.