Forex Analysis
FX Daily
In the data calendar the main event today is the release of February retail sales in theUS. We expect headline retail sales to rebound 0.3% m/m on the back of a very weakJanuary where bad weather weighed on consumer spending.
EUR/USD Analysis
The pair started in Asia at $1.3903, after trading a high of $1.3915 last night in the US, matching the high traded last Friday, which was also a 2.5-year high for the single currency.
GBP/USD Analysis
The pair closed in NY Wednesday at $1.6623 after rate had eventually triggered the reported stops below $1.6580, which took rate to extended lows of $1.6568, before it recovered to $1.6626 ahead of the close.
AUD/USD Analysis
The RBNZ’s decision to raise the policy rate by 25 bps this morning set a positive tone for commodity currencies, and aussie-dollar started the session tracking the kiwi higher to $0.9000 after opening at $0.8988.
USD/JPY Analysis
A relatively dull session for the Japanese yen this morning for a change, dollar-yen opening at Y102.76 and euro-yen at Y14. Dollar-yen traded an early Y102.69/78 range
RBNZ Fires the Starting Gun
The Bank’s published OCR track implies the cash rate will rise by a total of 125 basis points, to 3.75%, by year end. A further 75 basis points of hikes is anticipated through calendar 2015 and then another 50 in 2016.
EUR Mid-day Analysis
Even the Euro is a bit off balance this morning as fears of global economic slowing have left it out of favor.In fact, with the exception of the Yen, the currency markets in general are not seeing flight to
CHF Mid-day Analysis
Since it is difficult for all currencies to fall in sync, the Swiss has held together because of some spilloversafe haven buying interest.
JPY Mid-day Analysis
The Yen seems to be the lone benefactor of the current financial and economic threats facing the globaleconomy. The Yen looks to have the edge but gains are likely to be measured,
USD Mid-day Analysis
Surprisingly the Dollar isn’t showing definitive resolve despite a series of potential global safe havenissues dominating the headlines. It is possible that the threat of western sanctions against Russia is holding back
CAD Mid-day Analysis
The most positive development in the Canadian overnight is that it managed to avoid aserious downside extension in the face of rising fears of a significant slump in the Chinese economy.
GBP Mid-day Analysis
Into the early February highs the Pound appeared to be priced for perfection. While macro economicviews toward the US have improved recently, sentiment toward China and