Forex Analysis
Central European Daily
Hungarian bond yields fall to record low NBP unlikely to surprise markets A lower than expected Polish PMI did not affect the market.
The Global Macro Pulse
After opening up, most USD-Asia pairs are close to flat today with the exception of the THB which rallied down to 32.72.
FX Daily
The most interesting data release today is euro-zone inflation in May, which weexpect will decline back to this cycle-low of 0.5% y/y from 0.7% y/y in April.
FI Eye-Opener: The truth is out there – finally
Bond yields rose yesterday and curves steepened, modestly in German yields but more so in the US. The US 10-year yield leaped 5bp, bringing the yield back to above 2.50% (but only to levels seen early last week).
EUR/USD Analysis
The pair opened at $1.3597 this morning following a $1.3587 to $1.3628 range in the US last night. Euro-dollar struggled to make ground above $1.3600 in early dealings amid very limited trading interest.
AUD/USD Analysis
Aussie had a mixed day, weaker in the morning ahead of the RBA decision, but strengthened late as the RBA decision and Statement were scrutinised.
GBP/USD Analysis
The pair closed in NY Monday at $1.6747 after rate had recovered off a post London fix low of $1.6730 before settling around $1.6750 into the close.
USD/JPY Analysis
JPY started near the 100-day moving average at Y102.38 and proceeded higher toward the overnight Y102.49 high.
Weekly Forex & Interest Rate Outlook
NZD/USD Outlook: Down this week Expectations the RBNZ will signal a pause in June should continue to weigh on NZD/USD until 12 June.
BOC Won’t Change 1.0% Key Rate Or Neutral Tone June 4
The Bank of Canada will make no change to its 1.0% policy interest rate on Wednesday nor to its neutral tone on whether the next rate change some time ahead might be up or down, analysts said.
Weekly Commentary
While the New Zealand economy started the year at a rollingboil, it now appears to have slowed to a steady simmer.Even so, we think that markets are overestimating whatrecent developments means for interest rates.