In our view, the minutes to the September FOMC minutes provided little new information relative to that contained in the statement, press conference, and exit strategy principles. As we had expected going into the meeting, most on the committee feared that a change in the “considerable time” language would lead to an unwanted tightening of financial conditions.
…While downside risks to the outlook were mentioned, the minutes reveal a fairly upbeat economic outlook, especially from their contacts with businesses in the regional districts. Risks to this upbeat assessment came mainly from weaker growth abroad and a persistently stronger US dollar, with some participants believing a stronger dollar could prolong the time it takes for inflation to return to the committee’s target.
Altogether, we see nothing in the September minutes that leads us to alter our view that the committee will raise rates beginning in June of next year. This remains the case even though the risks to US growth from a weaker global growth outlook or a stronger dollar have risen since the September meeting.
Barclays