We have promoted the idea that a large bull triangle ended at 101.24 on 6/30; if we break below that level then there is a strong case for the bearish options laid out yesterday. The bearish options, below 101.24 and definitely below 100.82, represent the view that this entire range from February was a bearish correction of the decline from 105 – 101 in January. This was not our base case but b/l 100.82, negates our bull triangle. S/t, the rally from 101.45 failed right at the 50% retrace level only to suffer another sharp decline. The sell-offs from 102.27 and 101.86 are unfolding impulsively and a break of 101.24 clears a path for a test of 100.82. Resistance for today is 101.45 & 101.86. (hourly) Conviction: Med Levels: Support – 101.24, 100.82/78, 100.61 Resistance – 101.45, 101.86, 101.98
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