The trend in manufacturing and exports remain weak and there’s no recovery at all taking place so far. Both production and orders continue to show negative y/y numbers. Companies signal an increase in the order intake according to various business surveys, but new orders nevertheless fell by 2.2% m/m. Export orders dropped for a second month in a row and looks surprisingly bad going in to the summer lull.
After four monthly increases in a row, service production was bound to show a drop in May. It came in at -1.0% m/m which was pretty close to our forecast but below consensus. Even with this drop, the trend in service production looks very healthy and continues to signal a strong domestic economy.
Don’t forget that the monthly production readings are volatile and poor indicators for GDP. As for manufacturing, the discrepancy between the monthly figures and those in the national accounts is huge.
Details, May
Manufacturing
Production y/y: -2.2% (Nordea 3.0%, consensus 3.0%; prior 0.3% revised from 0.6%)
Production m/m: -3.2% (Nordea 0.0%, consensus 0.1%; prior 2.8% revised from 3.0%)
Order intake y/y: -1.4% (prior -1.0%)
Order intake m/m: -2.2% (prior 1. 3%)
Private services sector
Production y/y: 2.3% (Nordea 2.5%; prior 4.4% revised from 4.5%)
Production m/m: -1.0% (Nordea -0.7%; consensus 0.2%; prior 0.7%)
Nordea