Retail sale dropped 0,9 % m/m in May, fairly in line with our estimate of a 0,7 % drop. Consensus was -0,3 %.
Despite the drop in May retail sales signals decent growth in private consumption. Norges Bank estimates a growth of 2,25 % in private consumption in 2014, which imply something like 0,8 % growth q/q. After today’s figure retail sales still imply q2 growth in that area.
Norges Bank revised up its private consumption forecast in the latest monetary policy report. Going forward retail sales have to remain strong for private consumption to reach Norges Bank’s forecast.
Nordea