Unemployment including those on labour market measures fell marginally seasonal adjusted in May contrary to our forecast for an increase. That means that this measure for unemployment has fallen somewhat so far this year. That points to a stronger labour market than we had expected and could mean that the economy is stronger than expected.
We are however a bit unsure how Norges Bank will judge it. To make things complicated Norges Bank forecast seasonally adjusted unemployment excluding those on labour market measures. Due to fewer persons participating on labour market measures this indicator for unemployment has increased so far this year. Actually the level is if anything slightly on the high side to Norges Bank forecast.
In conclusion: we believe Norges Bank to judge today’s figure to be broadly in line with forecast. But in our view unemployment increasing because fewer are on labour market measures are no sign of weakness in the labour market.
Details :Unemployment rate at 2.7% compared to forecast at 2.8% (Nordea and consensus)
Nordea