• Having already exceeded the internal 76.4 % retreatment at 0.8005 quite a bit, chances of running into a straight extension towards 0.7755/44 (pivot/50 % on higher scale) have increased significantly.
• But as it is quite common that 76.4 % retracements are overshot we have to handle it with care as long as pivotal support at 0.7961 is not taken out. Above, the bounce risk remains quite high.
• The latter already received fresh evidence via the break of the hourly lagging line above the Ichimoku-cloud, but in order to really dent the long-term downtrend it would take breaks above 0.8107/26/57 (daily trend/minor 38.2 %/pivot).
JP Morgan