The base case for a move to the mid 103’s (to complete wave-D of a triangle) suffered a blow yesterday when $jpy broke lower from a bear flag. This bear flag break came with a larger channel breakdown as well. These 2 negative developments shift our bias lower in the near-term and promote the alternate case the wave-E of the long-term coil is underway and slated to complete near/above 101. S/t, key support is 101.61 followed by channel support at 101.35. A move back into the aforementioned channels (above 102) is needed to neutralize this near-term bear call. Once wave-E of the 5+ month triangle completes, a rally to and through the Jan highs can unfold. Conviction: Med Levels: Support – 101.72, 101.61, 101.35 Resistance – 102, 102.36, 102.65
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