It is enticing to view the impulsive rally from 1.0823 as a sign that the larger trend is turning from down to up but more evidence is needed. Trading since early May fits the guidelines for an a-b-c correction and if that is the case, we can see another move to 1.08 and lower before this wave-(4) correction complete. (d) S/t, the 5-wave rally from 1.0823 is now correcting and there is channel/Fib support at 1.0917/11. We will get a clue from this pullback; if it is corrective and leads to a new high above 1.0956 then we can raise the probability that critical lows are in, if the p/b unfolds impulsively we can quickly shift the bias to a new low. (h) Conviction: Med/High Levels: Support – 1.0917, 1.0911, 1.0837 Resistance – 1.0956, 1.1004, 1.1047
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Nomura