The high activity in the sector is supported by the NIER survey where retailers are getting increasingly optimistic. Also, household financial situation remains very positive.
The Easter holidays, placed in March last year but in April this year, put some uncertainty around the figures. However, this effect should be neutralized by looking at the March and April figures combined. The average growth over those months is still an impressive 5.4%.
Admittedly, the elevated year-on-year readings from the past two months are boosted by relatively weak readings one year ago. Thus, although we expect a positive trend throughout 2014, growth numbers should moderate somewhat already as from next month.
Details, April
y/y: 5.7 % (Nordea 5%; consensus 3.9%, prior unrevised at 5.1% )
m/m: 0.3% (Nordea -0.7%; cons. -0.5%; prior 1.0% revised from 1.1 %)
Nordea