However, we see details in the report as more encouraging than the drop in the overall confidence indicator suggests. Not least did the sub-index for export orders to the manufacturing industry rise from an already good level. In addition, industrial production has increased in recent months according to the survey.
Moreover, the situation for retailers has improved further, indicating continued good sales figures going forward. Also, construction activity has increased and expectations are optimistic, although the confidence indicator is just above 100.
Consumer sentiment recovered in line with expectations. The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) now edged up above its long-term average. The uptick was due to a higher micro index while the indicator on macro related questions declined further.
All in all, the survey is a bit mixed with some signs of weakness, especially in the manufacturing industry. However, several domestic related sectors show good growth and we see no reason to change our view on near term GDP growth.
Manufacturing industry (MCI): 94.5 (Nordea 104, consensus 102.7, prev. 102.7)
Private services sector : 102.4 (prior 103.7)
Total business sector: 103.1 (prior 105.2)
Consumer confidence (CCI): 100.4 (Nordea 101, consensus 100.4, prev. 99.0 )
Overall economy (ESI) : 98.8 (prior 102.4)
Nordea