February trade figures came in pretty much in line with our expectations. In value terms, both exports and imports increased by 2% over the year. The trade balance was 5bn SEK, largely unchanged compared to the February 2013.
Following years of decline, we expect that exports will pick up during H1 2014. This is supported by both international and national business surveys. But we do not expect a particularly strong upturn. The reason is that our forecast of market growth for Swedish exporters, though picking up from the last year, won’t reach the average growth over the past two decades.
Details, February:
Trade balance, SEK: 5.0bn (prior 5.1bn; February 2013 5.4bn )
Exports of goods, current prices: 2 % y/y (prior 0 %, unrevised)
Imports of goods, current prices: 2% y/y (prior 0%, unrevised)
Nordea