EUR/USD is finding some cloud support, circa 1.3975 (see chart). So far this has prompted a very small rebound and near term the market will encounter initial resistance at 1.4195 ahead of 1.4305/45. While capped here, a negative bias will remain.
EUR/GBP has seen a minor rebound from the .8670 support. We expect rebounds to be limited by the 50% retracement resistance at .8858 and we remain bearish while capped here. We look for a sustained break below the .8670 support shortly. This is the 38.2% retracement of the entire move from the June 2010 low and also the January 2011 high. Failure here will target .8576/54 (200 day ma and Fibo) en route to the .8453 4 year uptrend.
EUR/CHF – the outlook remains neutral to negative. We look for rebounds to remain relatively tepid, and rallies should find initial resistance at 1.2485 ahead of the top of the channel at 1.2661, which is expected to hold. We look for the market to slide to the base of the channel at 1.2280. Failure at 1.2280 longer term would introduce scope to 1.2015/00, the base of the 4 year down channel and psychological support.
Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Technical Research