Retail sales climbed 0,1 % m/m in December, after increasing 0,5 % in November. Retail sales still look weak after Q4 started by dropping 1% in October and the trend through the year is about sideways.
Retail sales in Q4 were 0.2% below Q3 pointing to lower growth in consumption then Norges Bank forecast. Of course consumption of services can pull somewhat in positive direction, but today’s figure was clearly on the weak side.
Unemployment moved about sideways in January after a rise through most of 2013. If this is the start of sideways trend it means unemployment will end up at the low side to our and Norges Bank forecast. Norges Bank forecast a very moderate rise through 2014. We believe however that growth at the moment is weak (underlined by today’s retail figure) and forecast unemployment to start trending higher again. Still a figure somewhat on the strong side.
In sum we view today’s figure to be neutral to Norges Bank
Details:
- Retail sales climbed 0,1 % m/m in December, after increasing 0,5 % in November.
- Nordea was -0,3 % and consensus was +0,3 %.
- October registered unemployment 89 812persons (s.a. and including those on labour market measures) up from 89 726 last month. Nordea was 91 000 (no consensus).
- The unadjusted rate 3.0% in line with our forecast and consensus.
- Total credit growth 6.0% y/y, unchanged from last month %. Consensus and Nordea 6.1%
Nordea