• LFS unemployment increased
• But the trend is sideways
• No need to change view on Norges Bank
There is a lot of noise in LFS unemployment and changes in one month should not be given much weight. The main picture is that LFS unemployment has moved sideways thorough 2013 after a rise during the autumn 2012. We believe this gives a misleading picture and give more weight to registered unemployment (January figure out on Friday). According to this measure unemployment is increasing slowly at the moment.
Norges Bank forecasts an average LFS unemployment 3.75% this year and one could argue that the November increase was in line with its view. But Norges Bank has clearly said it gives little weight to short term movements in LFS unemployment.
Details:
- LFS unemployment was 3.5% in November compared to 3.4% (revised from 3.3%) in October.
- Nordea forecast was 3.4% while consensus was 3.3%
Nordea