The Norwegian retail sales (Nov) came out at 0,5 % m/m. Both Nordea and consensus was 0,4 % m/m.
Despite the rebound retail sales are still pointing toward weak development in q4, after a drop of 1,0 % last month. We are below q3 level and even with strong growth in retail sales in December growth from q3 to q4 will struggle to be above zero.
Norges Bank’s forecast indicates growth in private consumption at 0,4 % q/q in q4 and so far retail sales is on the downside to the forecast. Retail sales does however only reflects growth in consumption of goods, and not services, which is included in private consumption. Growth in consumptiom of services can offset some of the weakness in retail sales, but hardly all of it. So despite today’s figure being somewhat above consensus we judged it if anything to be below Norges Bank forecast.
Nordea