Developed macro
1. Investors’ sentiment towards European assets remains fragile, with peripheral bonds dynamics still dictated by ECB interventions, or lack thereof
2. Norwegian GDP to reveal a further healthy expansion in Q3
3. US: Q3 real GDP to be revised to 2.2% vs 2.5% in line with changes in business inventories.
Interest rate strategy
1. We expect supply set up to weigh on Bunds today
2. The smaller the SMP amount, the better the state of the market
3. 3Y DSL reopening a chance to buy cheap front end DSL paper
FX strategy
1. USD remains a clear beneficiary in a risk off environment despite the lack of Supercommitee agreement
2. EUR/USD has failed to sustain drops below 1.3500 but a further drop is still on the cards
3. GBP has been an underperformer with news this week set to prove unhelpful. GBP/USD on track to test 1.5272.
Emerging markets
1. Asian currencies and basis under pressure
2. Thai Q3 GDP disappointed, Q4 to get worse, supporting the case for a 25bp BoT cut on 30 November
3. Hong Kong CPI inflation to ease – a general trend for Asia giving leeway for central banks to ease if needed
4. Mexican Q3 GDP to hold up well, at 3.4% YoY; Brazilian October C/A deficit to narrow thanks to trade
Commodity markets
1. Gold falls below $1,700/oz on margin selling and liquidity squeeze.
2. Spiralling debt woes prompt technical and black boxes to short base metals.
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CREDIT AGRICOLE
CORPORATE AND INVESTMENT BANK
1. Investors’ sentiment towards European assets remains fragile, with peripheral bonds dynamics still dictated by ECB interventions, or lack thereof
2. Norwegian GDP to reveal a further healthy expansion in Q3
3. US: Q3 real GDP to be revised to 2.2% vs 2.5% in line with changes in business inventories.
Interest rate strategy
1. We expect supply set up to weigh on Bunds today
2. The smaller the SMP amount, the better the state of the market
3. 3Y DSL reopening a chance to buy cheap front end DSL paper
FX
strategy
1. USD remains a clear beneficiary in a risk off environment despite the lack of Supercommitee agreement
2. EUR/USD has failed to sustain drops below 1.3500 but a further drop is still on the cards
3. GBP has been an underperformer with news this week set to prove unhelpful. GBP/USD on track to test 1.5272.
Emerging markets
1. Asian currencies and basis under pressure
2. Thai Q3 GDP disappointed, Q4 to get worse, supporting the case for a 25bp BoT cut on 30 November
3. Hong Kong CPI inflation to ease – a general trend for Asia giving leeway for central banks to ease if needed
4. Mexican Q3 GDP to hold up well, at 3.4% YoY; Brazilian October C/A deficit to narrow thanks to trade
Commodity markets
1. Gold falls below $1,700/oz on margin selling and liquidity squeeze.
2. Spiralling debt woes prompt technical and black boxes to short base metals.