Developed macro
1. Today’s ECB’s SMP amount gathers more importance than usual.
2. Datawise, the focus this week will be on Eurozone PMI indices (Wednesday) and on the German IFO (Thursday).
3. US: October existing home sales likely fell by 2.2% to a 4.8M unit annual rate in line with a decline in the September pending home sales index.
4. Japan’s merchandise trade deficit widened in October.
Interest rate strategy
1. Bunds have struggled to hold onto price gains, but uncertainty remains high enough for us to doubt a large sell off can materialise.
2. The launch of a new 10Y Bund on Wednesday, and a lack of periphery supply, could be the strongest directional driver of the whole week.
3. The US short end has $108bn in total to absorb today, thanks to an early 2Y auction and the Fed’s short end “twist” sales.
FX strategy
1. USD: To strengthen despite US Treasury super-committee announcement
2. AUD: Use peripheral cross-rates to play relative growth expectations
3. EUR: Implied volatility premiums are still too low
Emerging markets
1. Singaporean growth outlook weakens
2. China says CNY flexibility will increase
3. Thai Q3 GDP in focus
Commodity markets
1. Demand for gold rose 6% year-on-year in Q3.
2. Gold is a casualty of increased funding stresses.
3. Base metals drifted lower amid risks of both economic and financial contagion.
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http://www.easyforexnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/WMT_2011-11-21.pdf
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