- LFS unemployment slightly down
- But well in line with Norges Bank’s view
LFS unemployment showed a slight drop in September against the consensus view of a slight increase. Both a small decrease and increase would have been well in line with Norges Bank’s view as the central bank only publishes a forecast for the annual average LFS unemployment.
The details must also be characterised as rather neutral with a slight increase in both employment and in the labour force. Interestingly, according to the figures for employment and labour force, the number of unemployed should have decreased only 1,000 persons while Statistics Norway reports a decrease of 3,000 persons. This could be due rounding and only highlights the uncertainty in the monthly LFS data.
We see no reason to change view on Norges Bank based on today’s LFS figures. Friday’s data will be of much higher importance, especially Norges Bank’s regional network report, but also registered unemployment and retail sales are both important key data.
Details:
- LFS unemployment rate at 3.4% in September, down from 3.5%. Consensus and Nordea 3.6%
- Employment +3,000 persons, labour force +2,000 persons
Nordea