Statistics Sweden’s indicator for production in the business sector came out as we had expected. Thus, production declined slightly on the month after the rise in August, while the year-on year figure rose due to base effects. The year-on-year figure exceeded zero for the first time since March this year at 0.4%.
Figures for July were revised up but down somewhat for August.
Summing up the monthly figures for Q3, production rose by 0.6 q/q, but fell by 0.3% y/y. Note that the national accounts’ figures for the business sector have been stronger than the monthly production readings. Thus, the monthly production figures suggest that the Riksbank’s call for Q3 GDP at 0.5% q/q and 0.4% y/y is within reach (our forecast is 0.3% q/q).
Elsewhere, figures showed that inventories in manufacturing industry were reduced in Q3 and may shave off as much as 1.6% point of GDP y/y. This was much more than we had expected, pointing to downside risks for Q3 GDP forecasts. However, we await inventory figures for retailers and wholesalers due 20 November. As for now, we stick to our forecast of GDP showing some growth in Q3.
Q3 GDP is due Friday 29 November.
Details, production in the business sector, September:
y/y: 0.4% (Nordea 0.5%; prior -0.9% revised from -0.8%)
m/m: -0.3% (Nordea -0.3%; prior 0.6% revised from 1.0%)
Nordea