The September data for the manufacturing industry were much weaker than expected. Despite the improvement seen in indicators, the trend for production is still weak. Moreover, order intake remains on a downward trend.
Production was unchanged on the month in September after the drop in August, while we had expected production to rebound. Production fell by 0.9% over the year despite massive base effects.
The situation is especially tough in the mining, paper and pulp as well as the steel industries, reflecting weak global demand on commodities and perhaps some negative effects of the strong SEK. One of few glimpse of light is that the investment industry showing decent growth.
Despite the weaker than expected figures for September, manufacturing production still rose in Q3 by 1.2% from the previous quarter. We still expect Q3 GDP to show some growth on the quarter, although the forecast is somewhat more uncertain after today’s figures.
Details, September
Production y/y: -0.9% (Nordea 2.0%; consensus -0.1%; prior -7.1%, rev. from -6.9%)
Production m/m: 0.0% (Nordea 3.0%; consensus 1.3%; prior -1.4% rev. from -2.3%)
Order intake y/y: -2.9% (prior unrevised at -1.2)
Order intake m/m: -2.9% (prior -0.6, revised from -0.2%)
Nordea