Following the strong upturn in previous month, the Swedish PMI turned down in October. The downturn was bigger than expected. The PMI now stands at 52, which is above the growth-mark at 50 but below the historical average at 54.5. This suggests that there is a recovery – though a slow one – in the manufacturing sector.
All sub-indices were markedly weaker than in previously month. Notably, order intakes fell significantly and also employment turned yet again below the 50-mark.
Production data up until August have been weak and today’s PMI report suggests that a recovery in the manufacturing sector is slow. We still expect that the negative trend in industrial production will reverse in coming months. Our forecast for industrial production in September, which is due Friday next week, is a gain by 3% m/m.
Details, October:
PMI: 52.0 (Nordea 55, consensus 54.5, prior 56.0)
Order intake: 52.5 (prior 59.9)
Production: 54.8 (prior 57.6)
Employment: 47.5 (prior 51.8)
Inventories: 48.3 (prior 46.3)
Production plans 6 months ahead: 58.1 (prior 60.8)
Nordea