The trend in exports of goods is still sluggish and weaker than we had expected. Exports recovered somewhat during the spring but have leveled out again in recent months, in fixed prices and seasonally adjusted according to our calculations. Indicators paint a rather bleak picture, suggesting that export will remain flat also in the coming months.
Imports of goods show a somewhat better trend so far this year, reflecting a decent domestic demand. However, imports have also lost some momentum in recent months.
There were no major revisions to the previous months. The trade balance for Q2 was revised upwards by SEK 1.3bn.
All in all, exports of goods have leveled out but are still not recovering. The trend is weaker than we had expected. The bottom line is that there are downside risks to our as well as the Riksbank’s forecast for Q3 GDP at 0.5% q/q.
See chart on foreign trade on Nordeamarkets.com.
Details August:
Trade balance: SEK 3.8bn (prior 3.9bn, revised from 3.7bn; August 2012 4.7bn)
Exports y/y, current prices: -11% (prior -1%, revised from -2%)
Imports y/y, current prices: -11% (prior -3%)
Nordea