Overnight equity markets
Nikkei -1.52% 9’460.63
S&P500 -0.77% 1’333.27
Dow -0.74% 12’512.04
Nasdaq -0.71% 2’803.32
Overnight ranges
https://ibol81.ibb.ubs.com/fxdesktop/fxd_fxweb/fxwebapp/osrPopup.do
UBS Morning Adviser/Macro Keys/Swiss Daily Economic Comment
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/EMA20110523.pdf
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/MacroKeys230511.pdf
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/sd110523.pdf
Interest Rate Snapshot
Interest Rate Snapshot: Save haven buying in US treasuries and German Bunds continue to dominate markets. CHF reached a fresh high against the EUR and risk still selling off.
The worsening Greece situation is the main reason behind latest market woes. Greece only has cash to last until July 18th, according to Switzerland’s NZZ newspaper. Will this be the deadline to focus on? At my taste, markets tend to overdo. I still believe we will see a comprehensive EU/IMF package to calm down markets. But until we see that step I expect markets to remain shaky, likely triggering more liquidation of long risk. German Bunds are seen heading towards 125.80-126.00, which is the target in this move higher.
UBS Investment Bank TRADERS SENTIMENT
…have a look at UBS Investment Bank’s FXWeb for all technical updates
EURUSD prefer to sell rallies 1.4150 for a look towards 1.4000, s/l 1.4180
USDCHF buy dips at 8720/40, t/p at 8900, s/l at 0.8700
EURCHF sell rallies 1.2430/50 for a look at 1.2300
EURJPY sell 116.10/20 for 114.60 as first target, s/l around 116.40
USDJPY sell 82.25-35 with s/l at 82.80, target 80.60/70
GBPUSD play the 1.6130 1.6250 range.. the pound is playing slave to eur/gbp at the moment
EURGBP look to sell a pullback at .8720/40 with a s/l at 0.8775, tp at 0.8600
Gold play the 1500/1520 range
Silver sell around 35.05/10 for 34.55/60
The Day Ahead in EM
Taiwan: Industrial production (previous 13.82%, Bloomberg consensus 12.50%) and Unemployment rate (previous 4.42%, Bloomberg consensus 4.34%) for April are due at 0800GMT.
Hong Kong: CPI composite index for April is due at 0830GMT (previous 4.6%, Bloomberg consensus 4.6%)
Brazil: FGV CPI IPC-S till May 20 is due at 1100GMT (previous 1.09%, Bloomberg consensus 0.96%), also its Trade balance (FOB)- weekly till May 22 is due at 1400GMT (previous $1491 mn).
Mexico: Retail sales for March is due at 1300GMT (previous 2.7%, Bloomberg consensus 2.5%).
Israel: Base rate announcement is due at 1430GMT (previous 3.00%, Bloomberg consensus 3.25%).
Argentina: Trade balance for April is due at 1900GMT (previous $667 mn, Bloomberg consensus $2100 mn), also its Consumer confidence for May is due (previous 54.42).
Gary Dhami
UBS Investment Bank