Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD – focus on the 200 week ma at 1.4000. Targets 1.3370 then 1.3463/1.3390. The US dollar index is approaching channel resistance at 76.80
GBP/USD – Targets one year uptrend at 1.6080.USD/SEK has based – Previous 11 month downtrend now acting support – maintain positive bias.
Euro under pressure. EUR/GBP sitting on .8670 break down point. EUR/CHF all time lows
Weaker Japanese Yen. USD/JPY is basing circa 80.00 short term and targets the 84.30 4 year downtrend. EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY attempting to base
EUR/CZK – one to go back on the radar – Recovers from the long term uptrend line at 24.045
Fixed Income
Bund futures – Market has eroded the 124.60/63 resistance. This has introduced scope to 126.50/53. EU 2-10 swap curve – Look for downtrend at 1.18 to hold. Maintain narrowing bias.
US T- Notes – Probing the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 122-31, allow for further consolidation.US 2-10 swap curve -More narrowing should still be seen, provided that 2.575 caps
JGB – The 140.94/141.23 resistance zone is expected to cap
Commodities and Other Markets
Spot Gold – Sitting on key support, negative bias below 1527.60
ICE Brent Crude oil – Sidelined 105-120, risk on the downside
Vix – Volatility expected to pick up
Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Technical Research