EUR/USD spent last week attempting to correct higher but has failed to make any impression on overhead resistance. Intraday rallies will find resistance at 1.4340/46 and should now remain capped by 1.4425/65, while below here the market will remain directly offered.
The market charted an outside day to the downside on Friday, this is the second one in 6 days and a key week reversal. All are negative and we look for a slide to the 1.4000 (200 week ma) then 1.3770 en route to 1.3463/1.3390 (55 week ma and the 11 month support line). A slide to and recovery from here is our favoured scenario.
EUR/GBP has failed at the 50% retracement resistance at .8858 and looks set to resume its downmove. It starts this week with the attention back on the .8670 support. This is the 38.2% retracement of the entire move from the June 2010 low and also the January 2011 high. This now looks set to break and failure here will target .8574/54 (200 day ma and Fibo) en route to the .8453 4 year uptrend.
EUR/CHF collapsed on Friday and today is trading in new all time lows. It targets the base of the 2 month channel at 1.2313. A move below here longer term would introduce scope to 1.2015/00, the base of the 4 year down channel and psychological support. Rallies will find resistance at 1.2645/94 (the top of the channel). Note that the break below 1.2400 was seen in the Far East – to be a valid break we will need to see selling also in the European time zone.
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