Developed macro
1. Spanish local elections reveal worst defeat for ruling Socialist Party in 30-years.
2. Risk off tone permeating through markets as eurozone periphery concerns rise.
3. Greece still a focus as the ‘Troika’ ends its assessment of the economic situation.
4. Major Eurozone business surveys to ease gradually from current elevated levels this week, starting with PMI indices today.
Interest rate strategy
1. Short-term bond market momentum remains bullish, with mixed data flow interpreted accordingly.
2. The PMI is today’s most market-sensitive datum.
3. More Pain is possible in Spain, following Sunday’s local elections.
FX strategy
1. EUR vulnerable to softer data and the next Greek tragedy. Repercussions of Spanish local elections will be eyed also.
2. USD numbers will not alleviate concerns about pace of global growth, but USD impact ambiguous once again.
3. Other currencies to be driven by vagaries of risk appetite.
Emerging markets
1. Negative global sentiment putting downward pressure on Asian FX and rates.
2. Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturing numbers to point to slowdown.
3. Thai GDP to surprise on the upside.
Commodity markets
1. Gold: A key reversal or a healthy correction?
2. Base metals stabilising but downside risks have not abated.
3. IEA ask OPEC to increase production.
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