Please find below a few key pieces of research over the weekend:
1) EFSF Vote in German Parliament {http://bit.ly/qiLuz7}
2) EZ Sovereign Debt Crisis – Who, What, Where and When {http://bit.ly/rsunKS}
3) Asian FX: CNH unsettled by contagion {http://bit.ly/pDjPSY}
4) HSBC Essentials {http://bit.ly/qDLhNI}
5) HSBC forecast changes {http://bit.ly/n5OPxo}
1) EFSF Vote in German Parliament {http://bit.ly/qiLuz7}
The EU/ECB/IMF mission is set to return to Athens next week to resume the review…but there will also be votes on the revamped EFSF in Germany’s and Finland’s parliaments. We also list key events for the coming weeks and months Following a couple of conference calls between the Troika and the Greek government earlier this week, and the announcement of further austerity measures focused much more on spending cuts.
2) EZ Sovereign Debt Crisis – Who, What, Where and When {http://bit.ly/rsunKS}
The voting process in the EZ is underway – six out of 17 countries have voted on the revised EFSF so far, all in favour . PSI participation threshold excludes ECB and other Euro-area central banks’ holdings. New bonds’ deliverability against CDS is undecided EFSF voting schedule The process of voting on the expanded EFSF is currently underway. All countries must vote in favour, or else the proposals made on 21 July 2011 will need to be revised.
3) Asian FX: CNH unsettled by contagion {http://bit.ly/pDjPSY}
The recent weakness of the CNH is a function of position adjustment given continued uncertainties for markets. USD-CNH is not totally immune to the strains Asian currencies are currently facing.
These developments may allow CNH weakness and the discount against CNY to persist longer, but we think that it also helps safeguard the CNH deposit base. Thus, we maintain a positive view on the CNH and the broader offshore RMB market developments.
4) HSBC Essentials {http://bit.ly/qDLhNI}
A synopsis of a few of key pieces including FOMC Operation Twist Recap, Asian FX Focus, EM Strategist, CIA
5) HSBC forecast changes {http://bit.ly/n5OPxo}
In Turkey, the CBRT could opportunistically cut the policy rate once more this year if the pressure on the currency eases a bit. Lira weakness should keep rates unchanged in 2012.- Rising core inflation in South Africa means that the SARB is unlikely to rush rate cuts this year. But risks still remain on the downside.- In the Czech Republic, we expect the policy rate to be on hold until the end of 2012.- Romania could benefit from further monetary stimulus, particularly if the global trade cycle slows further. But FX exposure of households makes a rate cut unlikely.
HSBC Global Research