Overnight equity markets
Nikkei -0.01% 9’619.82
S&P500 +0.22% 1’343.60
Dow +0.36% 12’605.32
Nasdaq +0.30% 2’823.31
Overnight ranges
https://ibol81.ibb.ubs.com/fxdesktop/fxd_fxweb/fxwebapp/osrPopup.do
UBS Morning Adviser/Macro Keys/Swiss Daily Economic Comment
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/20110520_MA.pdf
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/MacroKeys200511.pdf
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/20110520_SDEC.pdf
Interest Rate Snapshot
No overly exciting news overnight but FED speakers made their stance, Fed Dudley said that they won’t wreck the economy with early tightening and Fed Evans said that a substantial policy accommodation is still appropriate. Fisher mentioned that there is no exit sequence, just considered options. They are all doves and not surprising on their remarks! Fair enough! BOJ unchanged in all monetary tools! Besides that nothing major, markets behaving in a very narrow range, commodities as well as rates and FX hardly moved! Bunds to open 5 tics higher at 124.18, still a buy on dips towards support area of 123.82, initial target is 124.63, if broken that will pave the way up to 125.12 followed by 125.58.
UBS Investment Bank TRADERS SENTIMENT
…have a look at UBS Investment Bank’s FXWeb for all technical updates
EURUSD Prefer to buy dips ahead of 1.4280-00, stop/loss at 1.4260 for eventual test above barrier level 1.4360
USDCHF Play range 0.8780 – 0.8860
EURCHF Play 1.2590 – 1.2670 range
EURJPY Prefer to buy, stop/loss at 116.50, targeting 117.80
USDJPY Prefer to buy 81.50 – 81.20 with stop/loss below 80.80, targeting 82.80
GBPUSD Play range 1.6170 – 1.6280
EURGBP Buy the dip 0.8790 – 0.8860, stop/loss below 0.8765
Gold Buy around 1488/1490, stop/loss 1484, targeting 1502/1504
Silver Buy dips around 34.75/80, targeting 35.50/55
The Day Ahead in EM
Taiwan: Export orders for April is due at 0720GMT (previous 13.37%, Bloomberg consensus 14.65%), also its Current account balance for Q1 is due at 0820GMT (previous $10100 mn, Bloomberg consensus $11500 mn).
Thailand: FX reserves till May 13 is due at 0730GMT (previous $187.6 bn).
Malaysia: FX reserves till May 13 is due at 0930GMT (previous $129.99 bn).
Poland: Core inflation (previous 2.0%, Bloomberg consensus 2.1%), Sold industrial output (previous 7.0%, Bloomberg consensus 6.9%) and PPI (previous 9.3%, Bloomberg consensus 8.6%) for April are due at 1200GMT.
Brazil: IBGE CPI IPCA for May is due at 1200GMT (previous 0.77%, Bloomberg consensus 0.74%).
Argentina: Economic activity index for March (previous 8.7%, Bloomberg consensus 8.1%), Industrial production for April (previous 8.5%, Bloomberg consensus 8.5%) and Unemployment rate for Q1 (previous 7.3%, Bloomberg consensus 7.5%) are due at 1900GMT..
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/EM-Today-May-20.pdf
Gary Dhami
UBS Investment Bank