EUR – Exactly the same as yesterday but with no FED minutes to look forward to. Volumes are decreasing and ranges contracting. German data hit the screens exactly on consensus this morning; we have French CPI at 7:45 and initial jobless claims at 13:30. It feels like the market is really unsure what to do with EUR/USD and is taking a breather this week, with many away on their Easter break. 1.3050-1.3125 immediate range with 1.3000-1.3140 outside that.
GBPUSD – No significant data from the U.K today. Similar to eur/usd, interest in GBP this week has been slight. Cable currently wallowing above 1.5300 but I suspect the market is looking for a reason to re-sell it. 1.5363 and 1.5400 topside levels with 1.5273 and 1.5235 support. EUR/GBP has little chance of finding its way with both legs stuttering. Suggest 0.8480-0.8560 contains today. Maybe US retail sales tomorrow can snap us out of the coma.
JPY – we topped out overnight at some decent fib resistance round 99.87 but the next level clearly remains the psych 100 figure. Remains to be seen whether we have the stamina to push through here today, some decent offers were in the 90’s when we tested the highs yesterday in NY so there will be some wood to chop en route. Should we break the figure, all we really see is offers immediately above so I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see USDJPY consolidate lower on a break. Offers in the books up to 100.50, stops kick in above here. Downside looking a bit precarious, stops now building 99.40 and below. Nothing much in the way of US data today, jobless claims are out at 1.30 BST.
AUD/ZAD/NZD – AUDUSD continued to trade well above 1.0500 yesterday with fresh model and leverage demand entering the fray, has dipped overnight back towards 1.0500 in line with the employment data coming out worse than expected at -36k however in conjunction with last months storming 74k increase more back to reality than anything for the headline print. The more concerning change was the increase in the unemployment rate to 5.6% but net net AUDUSD still holds in well finding demand around 1.0500. I think for now it is a buy on dips, a lot was bought yesterday above 1.0500 so need to be wary if we start drifting back below 1.0460 but we didn’t get there on last nights employment catalyst so more comfortable buying a pullback today. Resistance comes in around 1.0600 but should be corporate interest to sell ahead of there first. The mighty bird marches on like Jonah Lomu in his prime, 0.8601 the high overnight and still no desire to fade this move in NZDUSD. Orderbook is a little cleaner as one would expect resistance around channel highs at 0.8630 and then 0.8680 but nothing overly significant until 0.8800/45 (2011 high). I think buy a dip back to 0.8560 tentatively but more a reflection of the fact I do not want to try and pick a top. NZDJPY and AUDJPY still finding good demand and if USDJPY breaks 100 expect this to gain extra momentum, carry back in vogue it seems, strike a pose. USDCAD not really at the races, I am sitting long against 1.0100 support CAD still feels like it lags other commodity strength but has more domestic focus perhaps, happy to stay long as we remain above 1.01.
Scandies – NOK focus yesterday in wake of slightly worse than expected CPI print, underlying CPI drops to 0.9% which is lower than the Norges forecast 1.1% and so a few locals tentatively mentioning rate cut for the next Norges. EURNOK rallied after the print from 7.48 up to 7.52 over the course of the afternoon, I am currently long EURNOK and think we can retest 7.55 resistance before I will look to take some off. NOKSEK took a battering yesterday as one would expect from 1.12 to 1.11 and this could certainly be there pair to focus on today given its Sweden’s turn at the CPI stakes. There will be stops in the cross below 1.1050 and stops in straight EURSEK below 8.31/8.30. Will certainly leg into short NOKSEK if this Sweden print is better. Happy to stay long EURNOK for now and will look to sell some EURSEK at some point as well, offers around 8.40 for a worse print or sell break of 8.32 I think is the strategy. EURSEK support: 8.32 8.30 8.28 resistance: 8.42 8.46 8.50. EURNOK support: 7.42 7.40 7.34 resistance: 7.52 7.56 7.60.
Barclays