GBP/USD has sold off towards its one year uptrend at 1.6082. While we would allow for this to hold the initial test, we have some doubts that it will remain capable of reasserting the long term bull trend. The reason for this is straightforward – the longer term bull move is showing signs of failure ahead of the 200 week moving average at 1.6969 and the weekly RSI has turned lower. Thus our attention is on the uptrend at 1.6082/45.
EUR/JPY has rebounded over the past couple of days, however has yet to clear the 55 day ma resistance at 117.19. Nonetheless we believe the market has based at its 200 day ma at 112.98 currently and is attempting to base. 112.93/98 represents the 200 day ma and the 61.8% retracement of the move up from March. We look for this to hold the downside.
Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Technical Research